Is It Time To Buy Apple? Yep.
$AAPL Elections. Politics. Fiscal cliffs. Federal Reserve actions. European contagion. Do any of these things matter to shares of Apple? Not in the least. In fact, the only thing that DOES matter for Apple is that there's a big product announcement coming on Sept 12.
I couldn't help but notice that CNBC is running segments on the pending launch of the next iPhone about every 30 minutes today. A little excessive? Yes, but so is the excitement over the next generation of Apple's flagship product. Does this make shares of Apple, just off their all-time highs at $665, worth investing in? You bet!
Ever since the iPhone's debut in June 2007, Apple shares have demonstrated a consistent pattern of rallying going into new product launches, only to sell off thereafter. Shares may already be up 61% for the year, but that doesn't mean that iPhone-fever won't continue to build through the launch.
On the surface, this trend makes sense. If you read any of the tech blogs, you'll see rampant rumors and speculation about at least 50 things the next iPhone "might" do, most of which would be, well, pretty awesome. But then the launch occurs, and the phone only has two or three of those "must-have" features. Will tens of millions of people still buy it? Absolutely. But from the media's perspective, it's a giant collective let down. That's when the selling occurs, right as the articles and blog posts shift from all the things the iPhone might do to all the things the it won't do.
Keep in mind that there's a big difference between trading and investing. If you're invested in Apple for the long-term, you can ignore these short-term gyrations. In the end, you're still up 61% for the year, which is pretty darn good by any standard. But if you're adding to a position, for a 401K or other long-term investment, keep your power dry for another two weeks and you'll probably get yourself a much better entry point.
So enjoy, Apple shareholders. You have another six or seven days of bliss and record share prices ahead. Just remember that the markets tend to get a little glum on Sept 11th, so you may want to consider trimming your positions on Sept 10. It will likely be a downhill battle from then on, at least until a few weeks before the company is ready to report earnings again, which is historically another great time to buy back in, as speculation will once again trump reality.